Report from news circle says that 7th pay commission is going to submit its report on 20th November 2015 and 15 % hike is recommended. [Latest: 7th Pay Commission will submit its report on 19-11-2015 : Official Confirmed News]
Report of 7th pay panel may not be having satisfying recommendations
After submission , it is believed that the outcome of 7th cpc recommendation will be unexpected and disappointment for bapus as Central Government deliberately influenced the Pay commission to be cautious about upward revision of pay and allowances of govt servants. [See the Report of govt caution for 7th Pay commission ]
When the commission itself was ready to submit the report in stipulated time initially, the Central government gave four months extension upto December 2015.
7th pay commission is going to submit its report on 20th November 2015 and 15 % hike is recommended
The reason cited by Federation leaders for the extension was ‘ NDA government didn’t want to put itself in a mess before Bihar Election, because the Recommendation will not fulfil the expectation of Govt servants. The NDA government felt that disappointed central government employees may protest over 7th pay commission recommendation if it does not meet their expectation which , it felt, may reflect in Election Results. So the Central Government decided to postpone the date of submission of the report after the Bihar election.
But unexpectedly the NDA has failed to yield fruitful results in Bihar election. Now opposite parties found the reason to be united against the NDA Government, since the election result gave them faith and beleif to over power the NDA in coming elections.’
Further they added, “The winter session of Parliament going to start from 26 November 2015, opposite parties waiting to stall the proceedings of Parliament based on handful of sensitive issues which will be a bitter experience for NDA government.
So submission of 7th pay commission report before the winter session of parliament may help the govt to divert the attention of media and public from the sensitive issues”.
The Pay Commission, if it followed the methods adopted by previous pay commissions to compute the increase to be recommended for revision of pay and allowances of government servants, minimum 40% increase can be recommended.
But According to the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework Statement tabled by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in Parliament said
“The salary outgo of central government employees will go up by 9.56 per cent to Rs 1,00,619 crore in current fiscal.
The pace will increase further in 2016-17 at 15.79 per cent to Rs 1.16 lakh crore with the likely implementation of the 7th Pay Commission award” [see the Report about 7th Pay Commission]
So there are two possibilities for calculating Fitment Formula
1. As per the Finance Minister Statment the increase will be 15 %
2. All the Fedrartion demanded for 40 to 60 % hike, but minimum 30 % increase is expected.
Accordingly The Fitment formula for the above two estimates are worked out below
Present DA = 119%
Expected DA from from January 2016 =6%
Total Da =125 %
DA has to be neutralised to arrive Revised Pay from 1.1.2016, if so Multiplication factor will be 2.25
If 30% increase is recommended-
The Fitment formula = 2.25 + (2.25×30/100) = 2.92
Minimum Basic will be Rs.7000 x 2.92 = Rs.20440
If 15% increase is recommended-
The Fitment formula = 2.25 + (2.25×15/100) = 2.58
Minimum Basic will be Rs.7000 X 2.58 = Rs.18060
Minimum Pay to be recommended according to the above estimates by 7th Pay commission will be either Rs.20000 or Rs.18000
How ever both of the above figures will not satisfy the central government employees since the increase is not going to match their expectation. We have to wait to know the exact increase recommended by 7th pay commission till the date of the report is made public.